Oil prices resumed their great rise on Thursday, by more than five percent for the barrel of Brent North Sea oil, while the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine threatens to reach record levels in black gold.
At 08:40 GMT, on Thursday, the barrel of Brent North Sea oil benchmark rose 5.09 percent to $116.80.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude in New York rose 3.74 percent to $112.67, after a sharp decline the previous day.
On Tuesday, oil prices rose as US President Joe Biden announced a ban on crude oil imports from Russia in response to the military operations in Ukraine.
On Tuesday, US President Joe Biden announced a ban on oil imports from Russia, in the harshest measure his administration has taken yet to punish Moscow.
"We will ban all imports of oil, gas and energy. This means that Russian oil will no longer be accepted in US ports and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin," Biden said in a speech at the White House, adding that the ban was taken "in close coordination" with allies.
After America, will European countries boycott Russian gas?
Oil prices jumped to their highest levels since 2008, due to delays in the possible return of Iranian crude to global markets.
America decided to ban Russian oil imports, Turkey said it would continue buying, while Britain confirmed it would stop imports, and the European Commission announced that the EU would cut Russian gas imports by two-thirds. So what are the repercussions?
US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Tuesday that the United States is not pressuring its allies to follow suit in banning Russian oil and energy imports.
"We don't depend much on Russian oil and we don't depend on Russian gas at all. We know that our allies around the world may not be in the same situation. And so we're not asking them to," she added in an interview with CNBC. the same thing".
On Tuesday, US President Joe Biden imposed an immediate ban on imports of oil and other energy from Russia in response to its military operations in Ukraine.
Russia exports between 7 and 8 million barrels per day of crude oil and fuel to world markets.
Withdrawing from precautions and looking for alternatives
In the United States, too, the State Department's special envoy, Amos Holstein, said on Tuesday that the United States and other countries would consider withdrawing more barrels of oil from the reserves if necessary.
"If we need to do something again on a global basis with our allies, we will," Holstein added.
The United States, together with other members of the International Energy Agency, agreed to sell a total of 60 million barrels of crude in an effort to stem the rise in oil prices.
Reuters also quoted two sources as saying that US officials demanded that Venezuela supply at least part of its oil exports to the United States as a condition for easing sanctions on Caracas.
The same sources said that US officials have made clear that their priority is to secure supplies to the United States of oil, and that any easing of US sanctions will be conditioned on Venezuela's exporting its oil directly to the United States.
Turkey's position on the Russian oil embargo
In Turkey, Energy Minister Alp Arslan Bayraktar said that Ankara will continue to buy Russian oil and hopes to lift sanctions on Iran, bringing in additional supplies to meet global demand.
He added - in statements on the sidelines of the CERAWIC Energy Conference - that Turkey depends on Russia for 45% of its demand for natural gas, 17% for oil and 40% for gasoline.
"The world needs more oil," he said. "It has to come from somewhere, from the United States, from Venezuela, from Iran, from Saudi Arabia, or from wherever we want it."
He added that Turkey could not easily replace its Russian oil supplies from other places, adding that it was "an old reliable supplier."
Turkey had previously imported about 200,000 barrels per day of Iranian crude before Washington decided in 2018 to withdraw from the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement and re-imposed sanctions on Tehran.
"Suddenly we went down to zero (supply from Iran stopped)... Now we can't have another supply disruption, this time in Russia," Bayraktar said.
Turkey hopes that Washington and Tehran will reach an agreement soon that will bring Iran back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal.
European position
In Britain, British Business and Energy Minister Kwasi Quarting announced on Tuesday that his country will stop imports of crude oil and Russian petroleum products by the end of 2022 in response to Russia's military intervention in Ukraine.
This came in conjunction with the European Union's presentation of a new plan to reduce its dependence on Russian energy sources, amid significantly higher energy prices.
The British Ministry of Business said in a statement that stopping Russian oil imports would not be immediate, but rather would "give Britain sufficient time to adjust supply chains and support industry and consumers", as the government will work with companies to support them in finding alternatives.
The statement added that Britain's decision came in coordination with the United States of America, the European Union and other international partners.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also said banning Russian oil imports is only a first step.
For its part, the European Commission said in a statement that the European Union will reduce Russian gas imports by two-thirds this year and completely get rid of its total needs of Russian oil and gas before 2030.
The Commission explained that the EU plans to eliminate its dependence on Russian gas by diversifying gas supplies by increasing imports of liquefied natural gas and pipelines from non-Russian suppliers.
The European Union depends on Russia for about 40% of its natural gas, and this percentage is higher in some countries such as Germany (55%), which confirmed that there is no alternative "at the moment". Russia also supplies the EU with about 27% of the oil each year.
European demand for gas passing through Ukraine is still high, and on Tuesday reached its maximum, according to long-term contracts (40 billion cubic meters annually, or 109 million cubic meters per day).
The European reference price for Dutch natural gas "TTF" reached 2437 dollars per thousand cubic meters.
What about the Russian position?
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has threatened that Russia may cut off gas supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany.
He said that Moscow had every right to decide to impose a ban on pumping
Gas.
Novak warned that Europe will need more than a year to provide alternatives to Russian oil and gas, and that the cost will be greater.
Despite this, Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told reporters that "Gazprom continues to supply Russian gas through Ukrainian territory normally, and in accordance with the requests of European consumers," adding that the quantities expected to be pumped today are estimated at 109.5 million cubic meters.
Also in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the implementation of special economic measures in the field of foreign trade in order to ensure Russia's security.
Putin ordered a ban on the import and export of products and raw materials from and to Russia this year, according to the lists determined by the Council of Ministers.
The decree states that the imposed ban will not affect the products and raw materials that fall within the daily needs of citizens.
Putin instructed the Cabinet to determine within two days the countries that will be affected by the ban on importing and exporting certain types of products and raw materials.
Will prices rise to $300 a barrel?
The United States imports very small amounts of oil from Russia, but the embargo represents "another reason for losing supplies," said Matt Smith, chief oil analyst at Kepler.
"It is just another escalation in a series of events that pushed the prices of crude oil and products to rise," he added.
Analysts at Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy said the ban on Russian imports could push global oil prices to $200 a barrel.
Before the US ban was announced, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the price of Brent crude in 2022 to $ 135 a barrel from $ 98, and for 2023 to $ 115 a barrel from $ 105, saying that the global economy may face “the biggest shocks ever in energy supplies” due to Russia’s role the main.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had warned that oil prices could rise to $300 a barrel in the event of a ban on Russian oil supplies.
The supply disruptions come at a time when stocks continue to fall globally.
What are the implications of high oil prices on importing countries?
A World Bank official said that the continued high oil prices caused by Russia's war on Ukraine could reduce the growth of large developing economies importing crude, such as China, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, by a full percentage point.
In a blog post, Endermit Gill, the bank's vice president for equitable growth, finance and institutions, added that the war will direct further growth setbacks to emerging markets already reeling on the path to recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and finding it difficult to confront a range of uncertainties, from debt to inflation. .
"War has exacerbated uncertainty in ways that will resonate around the world, harming the most vulnerable people in the most vulnerable places," Gill said. "It is too early to know the degree to which the conflict will alter the global economic outlook," he added.
Some countries in the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa and Europe depend heavily on Russia and Ukraine for food, which together account for more than 20% of global wheat exports.
Gill said estimates from an upcoming World Bank bulletin indicate that a multi-year 10 percent increase in oil prices could cut growth in commodity-importing developing economies by a tenth of a percentage point.
Oil prices have doubled over the past six months, and have risen about 30% since the start of the Russian war on Ukraine.
And yesterday, Tuesday, oil prices rose by about 4% when the United States imposed a ban on Russian oil imports and Britain's statements that it would gradually stop importing oil and its products from Russia by the end of the year.
Brent crude futures settled at $127.98 a barrel, an increase of 3.9%, while US futures contracts amounted to $123.70 a barrel, an increase of 3.60%.
"If this continues, oil could reduce growth in oil importers, such as China, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, by a full percentage point," Gill said.
"Before the outbreak of the war, South Africa was expected to grow by about 2% annually in 2022 and 2023, Turkey 2% or 3%, and China and Indonesia 5%," he added.[/size]
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